Donald Trump Hit by Shock Poll in His Home State

Donald Trump is only ahead of President Joe Biden in Florida in a head-to-head matchup by four points, according to a new poll.

The Fox News survey puts Trump on 50 percent of the vote, compared to 46 percent for Biden. This is close to Florida’s 2020 presidential election result, when Trump won 51.2 percent of the vote, compared to 47.9 percent for Biden.

The Context

Following a string of primary wins, Biden and Trump are the presumptive 2024 presidential candidates for the Democrats and Republicans respectively, setting up what is expected to be a bitter re-match of the 2020 election contest won by the former senator for Delaware.

According to poll tracker VoteHub, which aggregates polling averages from respected pollsters over the past 28 days, Biden has narrowly overtaken Trump on the organization’s poll-of-polls and now leads by 46.3 percent of the vote to 46.1 percent. On May 30, Trump was convicted of 34 counts of falsifying business records making him the first former president in American history with a felony record, though he branded the trial “rigged” and is widely expected to appeal.

Florida has traditionally been a key swing state, voting for Bill Clinton in 1996 and Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, but more recently it has become something of a Republican stronghold. In November 2022, GOP Governor Ron DeSantis secured re-election over his Democratic challenger by 59.4 percent of the vote against 40 percent.

What We Know

The Fox News survey of 1,075 registered Florida voters was conducted by landline, cellphone and online between June 1 and 4 by Shaw & Company Research.

Notably, Trump’s head-to-head lead over Biden of just four points is an outlier with the poll-of-polls for Florida published by election analytics website FiveThirtyEight, which gave Trump a 10.9 percent lead in the state on Wednesday, before the Fox News results were included.

Whilst Trump only had a four-point lead in a head-to-head with Biden, his lead did extend significantly when independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., along with the Green Party’s Jill Stein and the People’s Party’s Cornel West are also included.

Former president Donald Trump
Donald Trump speaking during a Turning Point PAC town hall at Dream City Church on June 06, 2024 in Phoenix, Arizona. Trump is only four points ahead of Joe Biden in his home state of…

Justin Sullivan/GETTY

In this scenario, Trump leads by seven points with 47 percent of the vote ahead of Biden on 40 percent and Kennedy Jr. with seven percent. West then ranks fourth with two percent support, followed by Stein on one percent.

For the head-to-head, Biden has the support of 69 percent of Black voters, 52 percent of independents, 51 percent of college graduates and 51 percent of urban voters.

By contrast Trump has the backing of 76 percent of white evangelical Christians, 66 percent of rural voters and 54 percent of voters who don’t have a college degree.

Newsweek contacted representatives of the Joe Biden and Donald Trump 2024 presidential election campaigns for comment by email outside of usual business hours on Friday.


Speaking to Fox News, Daron Shaw, a Republican who conducted the network’s poll along with Democrat Chris Anderson, said the survey suggests Trump took a small hit following his conviction in the New York hush money case.

He said: “Since the vast majority of partisans have already made up their minds, we should look to those without a party attachment to see what the likely impact of the verdict will be.

“Roughly 14 percent of the electorate is truly independent, and about one-quarter of them say Trump’s conviction will matter ‘a great deal’ for their vote. The implication is that Biden may gain a single percentage point due to the verdict.”

What’s Next?

In July, Trump is expected to be confirmed as the Republican 2024 presidential nominee at the party’s national convention in Milwaukee, which takes place from July 15-18. Biden is then expected to be officially selected as the Democrats’ candidate in Chicago, where the party is holding its convention from August 19-22.

American voters will then go to the polls on November 5 to select their next president.