Some Independents, Republicans May Shift After Guilty Verdict

Topline

More than half of all independent voters want former President Donald Trump to drop his 2024 campaign after a New York jury found him guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in his criminal hush money case, according to a poll released Sunday, the latest post-conviction survey to show a slew of warning signs for the Republican candidate.

Key Facts

An ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted on Friday and Saturday found 49% of Americans want Trump to end his campaign after his conviction in New York, up one point from an April Ipsos poll.

Some 52% of independents said Trump should drop out after the conviction, compared to 67% of so-called double-haters (voters opposed to Trump and President Joe Biden), and 16% of Republicans.

A Morning Consult poll conducted on Friday found 54% of registered voters either “strongly” or “somewhat” approve the guilty verdict, and though 49% said Trump should be sentenced to probation, over 44% who said he should be given a prison sentence (68% of respondents said he should be fined).

Roughly 49% of independents in the poll said they believe Trump should drop out of the presidential race, just one day after Trump was convicted in his criminal trial in New York.

The survey also found 15% of likely Republican voters believe Trump should drop his campaign, while 8% of self-proclaimed Trump supporters in the survey said the same.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted just hours after Trump’s guilty verdict was read also found 56% of Republican voters said the conviction does not change their vote, while 35% said they were more inclined to vote for Trump after the verdict.

Still: 10% of Republicans in the Reuters/Ipsos poll, which surveyed over 2,500 U.S. adults, said they were less likely to vote for Trump in the wake of the conviction, while a quarter of independent voters said the same—18% of independents said they were more likely to vote for Trump after the conviction.

Get Forbes Breaking News Text Alerts: We’re launching text message alerts so you’ll always know the biggest stories shaping the day’s headlines. Text “Alerts” to (201) 335-0739 or sign up here.

Contra

Among GOP voters in the Morning Consult poll, 77% said Trump’s conviction was politically motivated, along with 43% of independent voters who said the same. In the ABC News/Ipsos poll, 47% said the charges were politically motivated, including 83% of Republicans, 51% of independents and 20% of Democrats.

News Peg

Trump was convicted on all 34 felony charges of falsifying business records in New York, stemming from a reimbursement for a hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels to conceal an alleged affair ahead of the 2016 presidential election. Trump, who denied the affair, claimed the reimbursement to his former fixer Michael Cohen was purely a legal expense, and has repeatedly decried the case as a “witch hunt,” claiming without evidence that New York prosecutors worked with President Joe Biden to charge Trump. The former president said this week he plans to appeal the conviction. He faces up to 136 years and $170,000 in fines if given the maximum sentence.

Key Background

Trump was indicted in four separate criminal cases since launching his 2024 presidential campaign, and previous polling has indicated those cases could potentially cost him the election (Trump has pleaded not guilty on all charges). Roughly 46% of respondents in an April Quinnipiac poll said they believe Trump committed a crime by concealing hush money payments, while 46% of respondents in an April New York Times/Siena poll said Trump should be found guilty in the hush money case. In an AP/Norc poll released in May, roughly half of respondents said Trump would not be fit for office if convicted in New York.

Tangent

Trump and Biden remain neck-and-neck, according to multiple recent polls, though third-party candidates have thrown a wrench in Biden’s hopes for reelection. A NPR/PBS/Marist poll released Thursday found Biden maintains a narrow 50% to 48% edge over Trump in a head-to-head matchup, though Trump would defeat Trump by four points when third-party candidates, such as independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., are included. Biden also appears to be losing support in key swing states, with a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll finding Trump leading Biden in seven swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). Biden narrowly won six of those states in 2020, with the exception of North Carolina.

Further Reading

ForbesBiden Vs. Trump 2024 Election Polls: Biden Takes Slight Lead In Some Polls After Trump’s ConvictionForbesTrump’s Hush Money Trial Hasn’t Changed Voters’ Minds-But It Could Still Cost Him The Election, Polls Show


Source link

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *