Donald Trump Is A Slight Favorite To Beat Joe Biden, But These Five Factors Could Significantly Reduce His Chances Of Winning The Election

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Ahead of the 2024 presidential election, former President Donald Trump is navigating a complex landscape of political hurdles and controversies that could impact his chances of winning. 

What Happened: Despite several significant obstacles, Trump is the slight favorite to win the November election.

Trump’s lead in battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan has been crucial, while voter dissatisfaction with the economy and internal party conflicts have weighed on President Joe Biden.

Trump’s controversies, including his impeachments and ongoing criminal trials, have not significantly impacted his poll ratings. The former president’s base has remained steadfast in its support for him, and Trump’s main GOP rival, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, has even endorsed him, adding to his momentum, reported The Hill. 

Also Read: Trump In Hot Seat In Hush-Money Case, Prosecutors Seek Deep Dive Into Ex-President’s Alleged Misconduct And Manipulation

Though things appear relatively favorable for Trump, major obstacles could still emerge, the outlet noted. Here are a few of them. 

A recent ABC News/Ipsos poll indicated potential felony convictions could sway some of Trump’s supporters. However, most of these supporters are likely to remain loyal because they see the prosecutions as politically motivated.

However, a conviction would give Democrats a powerful campaign argument and could influence some centrist voters. The outlet reported that a faction of the GOP remains uneasy with Trump, as evidenced by Haley maintaining around 20 percent of support in recent primaries despite suspending her campaign.

Conversely, an acquittal in the hush-money case in New York would boost Trump’s image and undermine other cases against him. A verdict in New York is expected, with closing arguments beginning on Tuesday.

Debates between Trump and Biden are scheduled for June 27 and September 10. Trump’s performance in these debates will be closely scrutinized, especially given his absence from GOP primary debates.

Trump has taken an unconventional approach to setting expectations by calling Biden “the worst debater I have ever faced” and claiming “he can’t put two sentences together.” Such boasts lower the bar for Biden to clear, according to The Hill. 

Trump skipped all GOP primary debates, citing his poll lead, which could leave him rusty by June. The risk isn’t just about committing a possible debate gaffe — with the GOP nomination in sight, Trump will face increased scrutiny on his plans for a second term.

Abortion remains a critical issue leading up to the election, with recent measures like Florida’s six-week ban potentially affecting Trump’s support among suburban female voters. This gives Democrats a key advantage, The Hill pointed out. 

Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, the GOP has struggled to grapple with the ensuing fallout. Liberals have won every statewide ballot on abortion, even in red states, and Trump blamed the issue for the GOP’s poor 2022 midterm results.

A year later, an NBC News poll showed 61% of voters disapproved of the high court’s decision. Trump has tried to avoid the issue, stating he doesn’t support a federal ban.

Additionally, Trump’s choice of running mate and unforeseen crises could influence the election outcome. Although the former president will most likely overshadow whomever he picks as his second-in-command, the choice is important and could possibly backfire.

For instance, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R), once a serious contender, faltered after including a bizarre account of killing her dog in her new book, resulting in a disastrous media tour. Ultimately, whoever Trump selects will need to withstand intense scrutiny.

In six key battleground states, Trump leads by 3 to 6 points in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada but by less than 2 points in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If Biden can win the “blue wall” states and Trump takes the southern battlegrounds, Biden would secure reelection by a narrow margin of 270 to 268 electoral votes, according to The Hill.

Why It Matters: Trump’s potential conviction is a significant concern. Jury deliberations are set to begin next week, and a conviction could have profound implications for his campaign.

A recent poll revealed if Trump were found guilty in the hush-money case, 53% indicated the verdict would not affect their stance, while 23% said they would be more likely to vote for him, and 25% said they would be less likely to vote for him.

Now Read: Donald Trump Outmaneuvered Manhattan DA By Gaining Access To Michael Cohen’s Emails. Here’s What Will Happen Next.

This content was partially produced with the help of Benzinga Neuro and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Photo: Shutterstock


27% profits every 20 days?

This is what Nic Chahine averages with his options buys. Not selling covered calls or spreads… BUYING options. Most traders don’t even have a winning percentage of 27% buying options. He has an 83% win rate. Here’s how he does it.


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