How a Trump conviction changes the 2024 race in NBC News’ latest poll – NBC Los Angeles

The newest national NBC News poll shows former President Donald Trump leading current President Joe Biden by 5 points among registered voters, 47%-42%, in a hypothetical general-election matchup.

But when the survey’s final question re-asks voters what their ballot choice would be if Trump is found guilty and convicted of a felony this year, Biden narrowly pulls ahead of Trump, 45%-43%.

Some of the most pronounced shifts come among voters who backed Biden strongly in 2020, but among whom he is struggling now as president — younger voters, Latinos and independents.

On the original ballot, Biden and Trump are tied 42%-42% among voters ages 18 to 34. But when these voters are asked about their ballot choice if Trump is convicted, they break for Biden by 15 points, 47%-32%.

Similarly, Latinos go from Trump 42%, Biden 41% on the first ballot — to Biden 45%, Trump 35% on the second one asking the hypothetical question about Trump’s conviction.

And independents shift from a 19-point lead for Trump on the first ballot to a smaller, 8-point edge for Trump on the second.

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The U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments on whether states can keep former President Donald Trump off election ballots because of his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss.

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