DailyMail.com poll reveals that 40 is the new 55 for voters switching from Joe Biden to former president

By Rob Crilly, Senior U.S. Political Reporter For Dailymail.Com In Washington, D.C.

17:12 24 Apr 2024, updated 18:22 24 Apr 2024

  • JL Partners asked 1000 people for their voting intentions to gauge impact of age
  • It found that the crossover age had dropped from 55 in 2020 to 40 now
  • Below that age a majority of voters prefer Biden, above 40 they prefer Trump 

Donald Trump voters are getting younger, according to an exclusive new poll, which shows that a majority of people aged over 40 back him over Joe Biden, 15 years younger than the crossover point at the last election.

The analysis offers the latest evidence of a realignment in the voting population.

And the latest bad news for Biden’s reelection campaign. 

It comes after a strong of polls suggested that Trump, 77, is gaining ground among young voters, long the preserve of Democratic candidates.

At the same time, 81-year-old Biden’s appeal is dropping, in part because of his age and in part opposition to his support for Israel in Gaza.

J.L. Partners ran an analysis of polling results and found that the crossover age for voters is40. Below that they are more likely to vote for Joe Biden; above that Donald Trump
Trump is winning over younger voters than in 2020, when the crossover age was 55. He is seen here leaving Manhattan criminal court on Tuesday at the end of proceedings

To test the impact of age and whether the adage about liberals becoming conservatives as they become older, tied down with mortgages, tax bills and kids at college still holds true, polling firm J.L. Partners asked 1000 voters at the start of the month for their voting intentions.

It then used a complex modeling system (known as a multinomial logistic regression model) to plot where the crossover point lies.

The results pinpointed the age of 40. Below that voters are more likely to plump for Biden; above that the majority picks Trump.

At 18 years of age, some 53 percent back Biden. By around 60, the numbers have reversed with 53 percent backing Trump.

Of course, sex, race, educational attainment and other factors all have an impact. 

The data show that the crossover age for women is 71, indicating that Trump continues to struggle to win over female voters.

Callum Hunter, data scientist at J.L. Partners, said the numbers should worry the Biden campaign.

‘This new analysis suggests that Biden has lost the majority of voters over the age of 40. A huge setback for a party whose support is mainly found in the younger voters of the US,’ he said. 

‘However, Trump is still struggling to attract women to his cause. Currently, only women over the age of 71 are more likely to vote Trump than Biden – a potential source of problems for Trump later in the campaign.’

Trump supporters gathered in Wilmington, North Carolina, on Saturday. The rally was canceled as a thunderstorm rolled in
At the age of 81, Biden is struggling to hold on to younger voters who traditionally vote Democrat. He may also be losing younger voters because of his stance on Israel and Gaza

For now, Biden is shored up by graduates, he added. 

‘These voters represent a small island of calm for Biden in a tumultuous sea of changing voting blocs,’ said Hunter.

‘Independents under the age of 70 are leaning towards Trump, with the gap between the Republican and Democrat at 9 points or less with this group. 

‘If Biden is to secure a victory in November, he needs to court favor with this key demographic.’ 

Trump maintains a slim lead over Biden in national voting intention polls.

The most recent J.L. Partners poll for DailyMail.com gave him a four-point lead, with a 3.1-point margin of error.

Student protests, like this one at Columbia University, illustrate how young people oppose Joe Biden’s support for the Israeli campaign in Gaza, which has killed tens of thousands of civilians
J.L. Partners polled 1000 likely voters from March 20 to 24 via landline, cellphone, SMS and apps. The results carry a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent

Since then, other polls have suggested that Biden may have closed the gap as he criss-crosses swing states with campaign visits while Trump spends four days a week in court for the first of his four criminal cases. 

A Monmouth University poll published Wednesday showed another steady improvement in Biden’s overall job performance rating. It now stands at 42 percent, representing a solid gain from December when he hit an all time low of 34 percent. 

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