Biden Gains in Swing States as Trump Is Bogged Down in Court

A new survey shows that President Biden is gaining ground in swing states around the country, after a February that saw the president sink to the nadir of support for his presidency.

The new survey from Bloomberg News and Morning Consult finds that across the top seven swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — President Trump leads Mr. Biden by four points. Last month, Mr. Trump enjoyed a five-point lead.

Mr. Biden gained support compared to last month in Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. 

In Michigan, Mr. Biden was tied with Mr. Trump at 45 percent support after trailing him 46 percent to 44 percent last month. In Nevada, Mr. Biden trails Mr. Trump by two points, 46 percent to 44 percent, closing the six-point lead Mr. Trump enjoyed in February.

In North Carolina, Mr. Biden gained slightly against Mr. Trump and now trails him by six points after being behind by nine points in February.

Mr. Biden gained the most ground in Pennsylvania, with the March poll finding he is now tied with Mr. Trump after trailing him by six points last month. In Wisconsin, Mr. Biden now leads Mr. Trump 46 percent to 45 percent after trailing him by four points last month.

In Arizona and Georgia, Mr. Biden either lost ground or his support stagnated. In Arizona, Mr. Biden’s support remains at 43 percent while Mr. Trump gained a point, climbing to 49 percent support in March. In Georgia, support for Mr. Biden slid to 42 percent from 43 percent while support for Mr. Trump remained at 49 percent.

The survey of 4,932 registered voters had an overall margin of error of plus or minus one point, but the margins of error in individual states were higher. The results in Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were within those states’ margin of error.

While polling this far from the general election is not predictive of the final results, the new survey does show that support for Mr. Biden is on an upward trajectory for the first time in several months.

The new data also come as Mr. Biden’s campaign is beginning to move into full swing, even as Mr. Trump is bogged down in court proceedings.

Also helping Mr. Biden is the push to revive the 2020 anti-Trump coalition that delivered him victory in the last presidential election. The survey found that nearly half of the president’s supporters, or 45 percent, said that they were motivated by voting against Mr. Trump. Among Mr. Trump’s supporters, 28 percent said that they were motivated to vote against Mr. Biden. 

“Negative energy motivates people,” the Morning Consult analyst, Eli Yokley, told Bloomberg. “And the people who are supporting Joe Biden today are much more likely to express that negative energy that energized his 2020 campaign.”

The survey also suggested that attorney Robert Kennedy Jr. could pose a threat to Mr. Biden’s re-election chances. When third-party and independent candidates were included in the polls, Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden 43 percent to 38 percent, with Mr. Kennedy receiving 9 percent support.

In the Economist’s polling average, Messrs. Biden and Trump are now tied at 44 percent support. The last time Mr. Biden led Mr. Trump was in September 2023.


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