It’s always Groundhog Day in Pennsylvania: Trump 52%-Biden 48%

All the trips back to Pennsylvania and his team’s promotion of “Scranton Joe” roots have failed to push President Joe Biden ahead of former President Donald Trump in his birth state.

In the latest Emerson College Polling/Hill survey out Thursday morning, Trump continues to lead Biden in Pennsylvania, now by a margin of 47% to 43%.

And worse for Biden, the survey analysis said, when voters are asked which way they are leaning in the election, Trump surpasses 50% to a lead of 52%-48%.

Trump has led Biden in every Emerson poll of Pennsylvania voters since November.

The numbers are likely to be a wake-up call to the Biden campaign, which won Pennsylvania in 2020. Biden has used Pennsylvania, especially Philadelphia, as his go-to to unveil programs and initiatives.

The state is expected to play a critical role in electing the next president. It was one of the surprise wins for Trump in his 2016 battle with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Voters in the traditionally blue-collar state give Biden a failing grade as president. “President Biden holds a 38% job approval among Pennsylvania voters and a 55% job disapproval,” the survey said.

They also believe Trump would handle the matters of immigration and the Israel-Hamas war better than Biden. They give the abortion access matter to Biden.


The poll revealed that Trump supporters are voting more on issues than Democrats and that they don’t see their vote as a way to reject Biden as much as Biden voters want to punish Trump.

“There is a distinction in motivation between Biden and Trump voters,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Trump voters support the former president because they care about an issue (28%), like Trump (27%), or dislike Biden (21%), whereas a plurality of Biden voters (33%) support the president because they dislike Trump and 24% support Biden because they like him as a candidate.”

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